Premarket Calls and Puts, October 12, 2026

Provisional plan on last night’s closing chains. The 10:00 AM run confirms on live quotes.

Today’s Catalysts

Chip sector firm into TSMC’s Q3 print Tuesday Oct 15, consensus revenue $45.8B, top of guidance. Nvidia reported to have overtaken Apple as TSMC’s largest customer. AMD and Qualcomm locked up nearly all of TSMC’s initial 2nm volume. This is the only specific, dated catalyst in this morning’s notes, and it points straight at an unreleased print.

Oil spiked again on a fresh tanker attack in the Gulf, Brent near $104 to $105, energy (XLE) leading the tape today at +1.39% while tech (XLK) lags at -1.08%. The 10 year yield sits at a 24 year high near 5.35%, a headwind for growth names. No single energy name carried a company specific catalyst this morning, just the sector level move.

Call Candidates

None cleared.

Put Candidates

None cleared.

Rejected, and why

NVDA: trend is clean, price above a rising 50 day, RSI 53. Rejected anyway. Gate 7. The thesis is TSM’s unreleased Tuesday print, not a confirmed event. AMD: same Gate 7 problem. The 2nm allocation story is forward looking commentary on a print that has not happened. TSM: it is the company reporting. A call on TSM itself this week is the forecast, the purest Gate 7 case on the board. AVGO: price $357.33 sits below its rising 50 day SMA $371.87. Fails the trend gate on its own, no need to even reach Gate 7. DELL, CRWD, PANW, SNOW: all sit on today’s breakout screen with clean technical setups, but none carry a specific dated catalyst, an earnings print, guidance change, capex news, a contract win. A technical scan is not a catalyst. DDOG: RSI 73.3, over the 70 ceiling, already extended on the move.

The tape is set up to keep selling chips and buying oil into Wednesday’s TSMC print. That holds unless TSM’s own report, or a cooling in the Gulf tanker situation, flips the macro story before Wednesday’s close. Nothing here clears the gates for a new contract today, and that is the system doing its job on a week where the one loud catalyst is still unreleased.